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Technical Appendix

The London Intelligence – Issue 4

Technical Appendix

National Insurance Number (NINo) Registrations

These statistics are a 100% extract of the volume of adult non-UK nationals registering within the UK for a National Insurance Number, which they need to work or claim benefits / tax credits. Figures are based on when the person registers on the HRMC Recording and PAYE system, which may be some time after they entered the UK. These statistics are not a direct measure of long-term inward migration, and have ‘national statistics’, not ‘official statistics’ status.

Jobs

Workforce jobs is a quarterly measure of jobs in the UK by the ONS, and is the preferred measure of short term employment change by industry. A variety of outputs are produced, including industry, region, gender and full or part time status. It is a compound source from a range of employer surveys, household surveys, and administrative sources; it has a sample size of 83,400 nationally. The estimates are seasonally adjusted. More information can be found here.

Unemployment

These figures are from the quarterly regional labour market reports produced by the ONS, and are based on an ILO definition of unemployment. The figures come from a combination of surveys of households and businesses, including the Labour Force Survey. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

NEET

These figures estimate the proportion of 16-24 year olds who are not in education, employment or training, from the NEET Quarterly Brief produced by the Department for Education. Information comes from a variety of sources, including the Labour Force Survey, Participation SFR and Client Caseload Information. Margins of error are expressed as 95% Confidence Intervals. More information can be found here.

Commercial Property Vacancy

The commercial property figures are sourced from JLL’s Central London Office Market Report. Vacancy rates refer to the proportion of floor space that is unoccupied. Active demand relates to serious interest in commercial floor space, while take-up is the actual amount that is purchased or leased. More information can be found here.

Purchasing Managers’ Index

The Regional PMI is compiled by IHS Markit for Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. It compiles responses from over 1,200 private sector manufacturing and services firm, which is representative of the economy’s structure, and acts as a health check of business activity. The number is the seasonally adjusted proportion of those reporting positive responses, plus half of those reporting no change. A score of 50 indicates no change in activity on the previous month.

Foreign Direct Investment

The data is from London & Partners, and refers to FDI that they have helped with – mainly in the ICT, Financial Services, Business Services, Creative Industries and Retail sectors. The number of projects refers to each individual new venture made by a company. Be aware that one company may make multiple investment projects, these would be captured separately. The number of jobs created refers to the number of jobs expected to be created in the first year of operation of the project.

Public Transport Ridership

All ridership figures are automatically collected by Transport for London for different modes within the network. Periods do not have the same number of days/weekdays, and are not adjusted accordingly. It excludes retrospective adjustments to bus journeys.

House Prices and Transactions

The house price and transaction figures come from the LSL/Acadata England & Wales House Price Index. It uses actual transaction volumes and prices based on Land Registry data, and is updated monthly. The most recent monthly price accounts for c. 38% of transactions, two months previously c. 88%, and almost all for three months previously. The recent months are supplemented by forecast results. House prices are seasonally and mix adjusted at the London, but not borough level or with property type changes.

Rental Market Data

Rental market data is supplied by Dataloft, based on rent paid data supplied under contract from a leading tenant referencing company. The large and growing dataset of rent-paid transactions includes detailed information on

both tenants and tenancies. It includes three years of historic data with a monthly addition of some 15,000–20,000 new records. The data has been rigorously collected by Rent4Sure. The dataset represents around 15% of all rental transactions, with up to 22% in some regions and extends across England and Wales.

Line by line data allows for extensive analysis of tenant profile and market trends. The annual change in rents is based on achieved rents. Incomes analysis shows individual tenant incomes against the rent or, in the case of sharers, against their share of the rent. Zonal changes are based on London travelcard zones.

Planning decisions

Planning decisions are based on figures produced by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, and published in table P135 here, sourced from General Development Control (District) PS1/PS2 returns.

New build starts and completions

Figures are sourced from administrative data as reported to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. Starts and completion statistics for new build dwellings are taken from Table 253a from here.

Issues Index

Ipsos MORI’s Issues Index is conducted monthly and provides an overview of the key issues concerning the country. Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 965 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. The questions are spontaneous – i.e. respondents are not prompted with any answers. Ipsos MORI’s Capibus vehicle was used for this survey. Interviews were conducted face-to-face in-home towards the over three periods (12-22 January, 2-11 February, 2 – 21 March) at over 200 sampling points across Great Britain. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Attractions Monitor

The figures presented here are for the number of unique visits to 63 of London’s top attractions: museums, stadia, galleries, monuments and more. Data is collected by the individual attractions, before being sent to and compiled by London and Partners.

Crime

These figures are for raw administrative crime data as supplied by Metropolitan Police Service and the Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime (MOPAC). Total Notifiable Offences (TNOs) refer to all statutorily notifiable offences, as per Home Office Counting rules. More detail on violent crime definitions can be found here.

Homelessness

Data on homelessness is compiled from two sources. Combined Homelessness and Information Network (CHAIN) is a multi-agency database recording information about rough sleepers and the wider street population in London. This included both people who have been seen rough sleeping by outreach workers and people who have a ‘street lifestyle’ such as street drinking or begging – often referred to as ‘wider street population’. Many people who have a street lifestyle are also rough sleepers, but a minority are not.

The second source is MHCLG table 784a – Local authorities’ action under homeless provisions of housing act (quarterly data). See here.

Road Safety

The data is for road traffic collisions and casualties occurring on the public highway, involving personal injury in the Greater London area, and reported to the Metropolitan and City of London police services during the reporting period, in accordance with the Stats 19 national reporting system. These figures are provisional estimates and subject to change.

Figures for road traffic collisions from September 2016 onwards have been reported by the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) using the new Case Overview and Preparation Application (COPA). The City of London Police Service (CoLP) adopted the Department for Transport (DfT) Collision Reporting and SHaring (CRASH) system in October 2015. Data presented here is sourced directly from these systems and has not yet been fully validated into the TfL ACCSTATS system. Finalised figures are scheduled to be published during spring 2018 in line with the DfT. More information can be found here.

Healthcare

Referral and attendance figures are from administrative data submitted by NHS Trusts and Independent providers treating NHS patients for the Quarterly Activity Return. More information on these statistics can be found here.

The A&E figures refer to administrative data which measures the total number of attendances in the calendar month for all A&E types, including Minor Injury Units and Walk-in Centres, and of these, the number discharged, admitted or transferred within four hours of arrival. More information on this can be found here.

Delayed discharge figures are from the Monthly Situation Report, which collects data on the total delayed days during the month for all patients delayed throughout the month. More information can be found here, and here.

Air pollution

The London Air Quality Network (LAQN) was developed by King’s College London in 1993. It comprises over 100 continuous monitoring sites in the majority of London’s boroughs. You can see more about the LAQN here.

Local Authority Spending

Spending data is based on individual local authorities filling out the Revenue Account (RA) suite of forms to show all their budgeted transactions related to the general fund revenue account. The figures are then compiled by the Ministry for Housing, Communities & Local Government (MHCLG, previously DCLG). The budget and outturn spending covers the financial year (April-March), with estimates based on a non-International Accounting Standard 19 (IAS19) and PFI “Off Balance Sheet” basis.