The seventh issue of The London Intelligence shines a light on several causes for concern: sluggish housing delivery and unaffordable rents, plummeting business confidence and falling EU migration.
The London Intelligence is a quarterly review of the state of the city. Each issue analyses the most up-to-date data on London and highlights emerging trends.
The number of EU citizens registering to work in London has declined dramatically, falling 39.5 per cent in the three years to Q3 2018, to 33,400 registrations. Meanwhile, non-EU registrations have remained broadly stable since 2015, falling 1.7 per cent over the same period.
The average proportion of income spent on rent increased to 31.5 per cent in the last quarter of 2018, the highest share seen in the last four years. London’s housing market is slowing to a crawl: average house prices rose by only 0.8 per cent in the year to October 2018. At the same time, the planning pipeline is decreasing and construction activity has also slowed.
London’s labour market remains strong, with continued job growth, particularly for employee jobs. Although the take-up of office space remained steady, business activity slowed and business confidence declined further.
International visitor numbers declined by 11 per cent in Q2 2018 compared to the previous year, although attractions admissions recovered over the summer. Unsurprisingly, Brexit remains Londoners’ top concern and rose by 13 per cent over the last quarter of 2018.
NHS performance – Londoners’ second highest concern after Brexit – remains outside targets but in line with national levels. On air quality, there has been a slight improvement and there is hope that the forthcoming Ultra Low Emission Zone will lead to significant reductions in roadside pollutant concentrations.